Loud thinking on economic issues just creates confusion

Book Review: Non-fiction/The Next Convergence by Michael Spence, Random House, 296 pp; Rs499 (Paperback)
Many of our most celebrated economists’ effort in surprisingly oversimplified or sensationalized rhetoric, especially in times of market uncertainty. Michael Spence has long been pointing out the fault lines that interfere with competent markets. He won the Nobel Prize in economics for working on the same theme in 2001, together with George Akerlof and Joseph Stiglitz. Here, Michael Spence’s new book, “The Next Convergence”, warns of the rough patches that arise when the world tries to accommodate both rapidly-growing emerging economies like India and China and slow-growing USA and western European economies.
This book refers that in the decades since 1950, as political, social and technological barriers fell, the growth impetus spread to populous developing economies, particularly in Asia. So far, such convergence has been unheard off- as only thirteen developing countries have managed to grow at an average rate of 7 per cent or more in first twenty five years. The formula for success is evident like buzz-embarrass the spirit of capitalism and get into the vibrant world of globalized trade. Nevertheless, nor is that easy bandwagon for success quite as achievable as many free-market economists would have us believe.
In 1950, author writes, “the average incomes of people living in these countries had raised twenty times, from about $500 per year to over $10,000 per year.” Though ironically, he missed stressing, these blocks account just fifteen percent of the earth’s total population. In recent years Spence has been majorly preoccupied with the economics of development and growth, and his active concentration in laissez-faire’s flaws has stayed with him. His book however is not sure about this nor, unfortunately, of many of the other macroeconomic policy issues he tackles. “The Next Convergence” adds hardly anything new as an overrated book and author’s relentless loud thinking on contemporary economic issues creates more confusion than solution.
The book primarily tries to survey the current state of both the growth and development economics, but without having standing to deal with the complexities of foreign aid, trade liberalisation, natural resources and the difficulty that countries experience when they begin evolving from middle-income nations to the next level economies. Any anticipation for breaking little new ground would be over expectation from this work, which is akin to rest on the broad generalities, finally leaving little in terms of outcome. The book has more questions than answers that may or not be bad enough but from readers’ perspective such mode of narration is hardly satisfying.
The crux of Michael Spence’s book exposes that future of global economy is going to be promising, in which perhaps 75 per cent of humanity will enjoy standards of living similar to those of today’s high-income countries by the middle of this century. Such unrealistic optimism seems based more on the ground of feeble research and weird hypotheses. Though, he further contradicts his own optimism by citing the potential risks against the future high growth in developing economies.
Lastly, his four findings are not new though gives the book some ideational foreground, to recognise the limits of one’s knowledge and the need to feel the way; appreciate the benefits of adversity; understand that sustainable wealth is built on people; finally, realise that governance matters. Altogether, these four are the Spence’s superstructure for “The Next Convergence” in a multispeed world!
Atul Kumar Thakur
May 17th, 2012, Thursday, 2012, New Delhi
Email: summertickets@gmail.com
(Published in The Financial World/Tehelka on May15th,2012)

Palpasa’s trail!

Book Review: Fiction/Palpasa Cafe by Narayan Wagle, Random House India, 256 pp; Rs199 (Paperback)
The English fiction writing in Nepal has not yet entered into a matured phase from where the mass issues can be broadly presented for meaningful orientations. This is little bizarre, as in the category of non-fiction English writing, especially those done by the leading journalists have found accolades both in the country and outside. In absolute terms, Nepali literature is quite rich with an amazing consistency of its development-even in present time, the pace is intact and that is the matter of great solace. Though in recent times, Manjushree Thapa and few others have also did sporadically well to bridge the gap in English fiction writing…this work/Palpasa Cafe of Nepal’s leading journalist, Narayan Wagle is also appears very refreshing in a sensible English translation of Bikash Sangruala.

Set in the backdrop of Nepal’s transitory democratic scene, this novel could be termed very much the replica of those painful years started with the royal massacre of 2001. That brutally mysterious incident left the balance of royalty, mass belief, democracy and approaching radicalism in a prolong state of weirdness whose signs are still very much visible in Nepal. Palpasa Café is a sort of original work, that’s completely woven around the realities, with those the Nepalese lives have suffered immensely in last two decades. Inside the novel, Palpasa is a female protagonist, representing the insecure generation of her country with vivid charm and bewilderness. Her muse like involvement with the artist assures at some point, love can take lead even in the deep darkness of war and uncertainty!

But also is truth, those adversities tests the relations on its own hard terms where emotions alone don’t last long before the extreme convictions. Under the guise of unpleasant circumstances, Palpasa meets untimely but faithful end, and her better half part relies on artistic continuance and follow up ethical bearings. Which overall reaffirms that the benign functionalism of bond can be easily also coexists beyond the conventionally restricted trees of relationships. Being familiar with both the India and Nepal’s length and width, Narayan Wagle’s description from Goa to the valleys of turbulent Kathmndu allows readers to know and sense the events with comfortable ease. On individual characters, his reliance to assert his news centric opinion also creates interest rather confusion, that’s definitely a big win for this debutant author at quite ripe age.

Those who have enthusiasms for knowing the political history of Modern Nepal, advent and shaping of democracy in the nation can be more blessed entwining with this highly factualised fiction. Practically, like a scribe and astutely as an editor, Narayan Wagle delineates Nepal’s essential events of last few decades through a very balance vigour, which keeps reader informed and entitled with the development in envisaged plots. Moreover, better concentration over the conflicts among community and vested political interests of different political groups necessitates knowing the ongoing struggle of Nepal’s democracy not in monolith frame. If Palpasa’s end comes so easily, that it can be taken less than a loss of a human for the strife believer Maoists or other insensitive political participants, then atleast momentously it looks more believable to accept “disenchantment “from the existing institutional frameworks as “mainstream move”!

The book tries well to establish those disenchanting urges with the directionless political development in Nepal. This gives the effort of author a much desired broadness. Through knowing by one’s own impulses or getting in term with a work like this, views strengthens that the pain of Nepal’s democratic transition is far being over in the days to come. The big gulf that created with the end of monarchy or even much before, from the royal massacre, is still haunting the prospects of political normalization in the country. A nation with rich cultural past and gifted human and natural resources, Nepal certainly deserves to retrieve its normalcy and peace back. Over the years, Nepali journalists have been playing the vital role in forming balanced international consensus in favour of Nepal, time has still not lapse have they start thinking to concentrate more on homeland!
Atul Kumar Thakur
March 15, 2012, Thursday, New Delhi
Email: summertickets@gmail.com

Mango blues!

Book Review: Fiction/A Case of Exploding Mangoes by Mohammed Hanif, Random House India, 377 pp; Rs250 (Paperback)

Within literary writings, fiction and fantasies most often used in a blend to establish the plots that subverts the subtle differences and effects of these two. In a random search, most of prose writings fall in this category with their impregnable steadfastness and inflexibility. Deeply influenced with the colonialist tradition, Indian subcontinental writings too have been displaying similar temptations until the advent of post-colonialist consciousness broadly after the 1980’s. That made rational impacts on English writings in particular and henceforth a clear devoid from brownish tradition a ground reality. On this front, India edged out its neighbours as the prime mover of new consciousness though in the course of time, that gap established to be narrowed down.

The new generation of Pakistan’s English writers has strengthened that notion with amazing display of concern towards nation’s suffering in past and present. Mohammad Hanif is one among the strong voice of this literary generation who overtly displayed the malignity inside the Pakistan’s authoritative regime during the time of General Zia ul-Haq with his first novel, A Case of Exploding Mangoes. His deep inquisition of major and silly habitual status of Military rulers, ISI-foreign officials and most noteworthy of mimic politicians portrays very well the actual scene of Pakistan in 1980’s. That was by all means a very traumatic phase for the country whose quest for a real democracy was still on. As Hanif’s novel leads its reader to every nook and cranny of Pakistan through the progress of realistically imbibed theme, at some points it also makes clear that a “paralysed democracy” couldn’t be possible without the command hijacking by big brother, USA!

Unlike the political hotspots, creative terrains are little distinct in projecting real events and even imaginative ideas. Fortunately, Hanif lets enough spaces for his readers to feel and form opinion on the resentment against General Zia that exploded his presidential plane, Pak One midway along with US Ambassador to Pakistan, Arnold Raphel and few other influential officials. Figuratively, Zia’s obsession with mangoes, diplomacy and dualistic life styles are beautifully covered here, so are the intimate sides of this authoritarian ruler. Details are abundant; it seems stronger after reading past half of the book where few details were easily worth of escape albeit stylized narratives of Hanif and his close hold over the secretness till the end makes reader compelled to walk together with him.

So far Zia’s unexpected death has remains a mystery and any advance on simplifying this is possible only through the guess, the way this book has performed. Who has killed him? The impatient army generals growing old waiting for their promotions? The CIA? The ISI? RAW? Or Ali Shigri, a junior officer at the military academy whose father, a whisky-swilling jihadi colonel, has been murdered by the army? The unusual isolated huddling of Zia while boarding the last flight shows the kind of end he met was not totally unimagined for him. As in his confession, he repeatedly used to stress on his humble family background that given him lust rather inspiration to dramatically progress the ranks and his rise whatsoever its fallouts, was the crest of oddities! He rose and never fallen in true sense, which was not less tragical; he met to accident and not to a fairly exercised trail. In true introspection, only rise and rise of ruling generals have long history in Pakistan…their multitasking always harmed the democratic elements and soft socio-political fabric that could have easily possible with a proper democracy at place.

As writers’ perspectives, what is fresh and remarkable is the absence of blames towards external factors for big mess. As a writer, Hanif has a clear lead with this book; he accomplished it through relying on his long inside experiences in Pakistan’s arm force and later working as a journalist of repute for years. His writing is closer to the aspiration of pious yet subdued aspirations of a mass Pakistani and clearly separated from the hyped bandwagons that consistently made the undeserving participants, the deciding forces in mainstream. Away from the narrow prisms and consideration, this novel attracts only the genuine concern and leaving aside all non essential issues, that’s triumph of high standard. It could be solace for all realistic polemists and constructive participants of diplomacy that Pakistan’s positive side is quite resonant and it’s for good amidst all glooms of radicalism and ambiguous democratic functioning!
Atul Kumar Thakur
February29, 2012, Wednesday, New Delhi
Email: summertickets@gmail.com

Chronicling Poor Lives!

Book Review: - Poor Economics/Abhijit .V.Banerjee and Esther Duflo/Poor Economics/Abhijit .V.Banerjee and Esther Duflo,Random House India,Price-Rs.499,2011
As economics itself can’t be poor with its articulate nuances, so the efforts of MIT Economists, Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo can be better understand as Economics of Poors. This book is well intentioned as it entered into the poverty debate with involving local/community perceptions and abstained to fall in the trap of generalization. That enables the work to reach on the real causes of poverty and failure of numerous national and international programmes.

Infact the main argument of this book “The way the poor make decisions, at some level, is not that different from our own. They are no less rational or sophisticated than anyone else, and they are well aware that mistakes for them are costlier” is very touching and reflects the need of humane observation on poverty instead maintaining technical status quo. Abhijit and Esther, the propunder of “randomized control trials in development economics” leaves simple solution for the policy makers by playing careful attention to the evidence, this way, it’s possible to form accurate view on impacts of poverty. This book raises many questions from impulsive side, how the bandwagon among the poors kills the real existential issues!

The best of book comes in the first part, where each of the five chapters gives an impressionable account to know the poverty in universal terms. Chapter-Ist dwells with human development issues and come out impressively with an overview of regional variation in HDI. Chapter-II/A billion hungry Peoples, which is most fruitful as it shatters the all ill imposed convictions, that trying to legitimize the every moves of market capitalism as good for poors. Authors take on puzzling nutrition debate in India is yet another reminder, why our vulnerable position is intact in global HDI Index? Further the reference of Angus Deaton/Jean Dreeze, who shown that “the real story of nutrition in India over last quarter century is not that Indians are being fatter; it’s that they are infact eating less and less” exposes how empty is the tall claims of Indian growth on poors.

Further, Gender discrimination during the Indian drought of 1960’s has sensibly covered, which opens a new concern towards this unusual discrimination. Chapter-III deals with the grassroot health scenario with highlighting the pitiful public services, unaffordable private health care, flawed governance etc. Chapter-IV/ Top of the Class, meticulously inquisite that why school fails? Chapter-V/Pak Sudarno’s Big Family, covers the many crucial aspects of demography and family planning in new light.

Part-II of the book, that’s institution focussed retains the fine touch in Chapter-VI/Barefoot Hedge-Fund Managers, which covers the plank of investments in poors life. But the distraction appears stoutly in Chapter-VIII, where the authors sailed the wrong boat by trying to infuse new energy in poverty debate by relying on the private MFI’s business which is still passing through a severe phase, out of theirs impractical/unethical business model. It would have better, if authors may have presented the calibrated model of micro-financing through the credibly managed government/private financial institutions. In Indian contexts particularly, diversity of financial institutions with special focus on Regional Rural Banks/RRBs could have made lot of differences in finding the true way out of bottom level financing. The next three Chapters shaped with global perspectives on innovation, entrepreneurship and most remarkably on policy issues.

Both Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo have keen interest in economic research, they have show such pastime in theirs book which stands with outstanding views on the nature and causes of poverty. Majority part of this book can be used for policy framing or by general readers to sharpen their grasp on the poverty. Noticeable is the language of this book which is completely flowing despite written by the two technical economists…it makes even an ordinary enthusiast reader capable to entwine with the very important aspects of economics. As the world standing on a critical juncture between blind waves of market led growth and incessantly growing inequality; significance of such work maximizes manifolds!
Atul Kumar Thakur
July 27, 2011, Tuesday, New Delhi
Email: - summertickets@gmail.com