An unholy nexus binds Government to industry

From the Planning Commission and the apex bank endorsing corporate events organised by shady consultancies to the Finance Ministry supporting toothless industrial lobbies, the political class signs in tune with India Inc
We all know how UPA2 has stopped performing and is scoring poorly in most of areas. This well-choreographed plan is a rare phenomenon in realpolitik which re-defines the Darwinian principle of existence (Charles Darwin tried to, wrongly, make us believe that only the fittest can survive).

The existential quest is blurred, and configured so that action is presented as sin and inaction as unwavering virtue. Those in Government are a happy lot, but escapist business honchos are disturbed. They are not getting their favours on time — a throwback to the slow socialist days. This is a funny situation, especially when the country has no dearth of ‘non-performing assets in the form of some corporate leaders. The list is long but deserves not to elaborated.

There are countless activities in India’s burgeoning metro cities where the beleaguered corporate lot, mostly from the wonderland that is the West, has foolish interests. But here the safeguard to national interest is coming through collective angst. This is a sort of strength for new India that trounces Goldman Sachs and WalMart and the insightfully-poor rating agencies’ hope of making the country a parking lot for many of its useless minds.

The corporate world is in desperation, as it genuinely finds it difficult to stay exuberant beyond the happy premises of five star hotels — momentary relief though comes quite often, as India’s Finance Ministry is fully committed to acknowledging the events of toothless industrial lobbies and shady consultancy companies.

Nothing is taken for granted at such events — so everything is productive and meaningful within that ambit. A photo session with a Cabinet Minister has its high demand, speaking from the dais (before an indifferent and slumbering audience) is important, being front-running sponsor of an event has its value.

The Reserve Bank of India and the Planning Commission also support such corporate events where we hear many useless speeches. But despite the good tuning between the Government and business sector, those with money are still sad souls in India.

This might be because, sometimes, the cycle fails and then layoffs begin. At this stage, the top honchos recall the value of money and in the process goes back to the long-discredited economist Adam Smith (sadly, he couldn’t understand the discipline). But the tragical wind is unbiased, and it is dutifully blowing across all the sectors. Job cuts are all-pervasive including within the media which silently suffers much management atrocities.

Another area of unethical exploitation is the intellectual festivals. The Tehelka-Tarun Tejpal-Think Fest episode is a good case in point. Generally speaking, these conditions should have kept the humour alive in business circles but as the tough reality of the current situation is known to all, the sentiment will be in a jittery state.

The boom-time of ignorance is over now. The chances of course-correction are also few, especially given the current functional arrangement of the industry-Government dynamic. So, to be sure, in the time ahead, the Indian economy will seem to be more shocking than entertaining. Besides a failed Government, the corporate sector too has to be held accountable for its inability to rise to the occasion and make the most of several opportunities that have presented themselves over the years.
-Atul K Thakur
Email: summertickets@gmail.com
(Published in The Pioneer,on December06,2013)

India's industrial lobbies are crumbling

The return of these institutions to the fold of big business houses and the consequent weakening of executive control in these chambers have damaged their credibility and are detrimental to their sustenance

On hindsight, it is safe to say that India Inc no longer runs through legitimate lobbies. Recent years have witnessed a sharp fall in the quality of leadership at India’s premier business chambers — the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India and the National Association of Software and Services Companies. This has led to sagging morale in business circles, with furious voices emerging from the inside.

The return of these institutions to the fold of big business houses and the consequent weakening of executive control in these chambers are detrimental to their credibility and sustenance. These institutions are more the victims of inner strife than the economic slowdown that has plagued Indian industry in recent months.

It is worthwhile to recall that ‘lobbyism’ is itself a hyper-materialistic term which is often used to refer to the clout of the old boys’ network that uses the backdoor approach to get things done. Lobbying is an established phenomenon in the US, but clearly what may be fine in an alien land is not acceptable in India. Still, some people like a former CII chief (whose untainted reputation lost much of its sheen after the

Radia tapes came into the public domain) have sought to push the culture of lobbyism. UPA2, with its propensity to plunder public resources, has ensured that such systemic ills happily flourish. It is unlikely that the Government’s insensible use of the carrot-and-stick policy which pampered business tycoons, will lead to any improvements. It will only encourage sleaze in business and accelerate the downward spiral in trade.

The crucial issue here is that the Government rarely does anything that is notionally wrong, but routinely falters at the implementation level. The converging of politicians’ business interests with those of the industrialists can only fudge the lines between politics and business.

A recent case in point is the FIR lodged by the CCenttral Bureau of Investigation against Kumar Mangalam Birla. The Government sought to spin the news in its favour but the Supreme Court and a former Coal Secretary did not allow it to hide the Prime Minister’s Office’s explicit mishandling of coal block allocations. Moreover, the UPA’s own Ministers, including Mr Anand Sharma, spoke their mind and expressed displeasure over the Government’s risky adventure against Mr Birla.

The Ministers fear slowing growth in such circumstances — already, India’s corporate entities are turning incompetent. There is also a disconnect between intention and action, making it highly unlikely that the Indian economy will return to its lost growth trajectory soon. There is not much for trade bodies to look into at this point, as the current mess has happened at a high level, leaving no space for third parties to intervene.

The fight is on to save the face of the Government. And, except for the Supreme Court and the Election Commission, no other institution has effective authority to challenge the regime. Through indecisiveness and preferential treatment, the Government is doing its best to damage the entrepreneurial spirit in the country. Unfortunately, no voice can be heard against such moves from the industrial community, instead, it only whines on specific issues wherein its immediate interests come into play. The trade representatives are now pantomime actors.

Besides, these institutions had ceased to be the knowledge institutions long time ago, when motley groups of tainted management consultants begun supplying second-hand wisdom from within the various chambers’ crumbling blocks. Clearly, it is tough to be either on the side of the Government or the industry.

China has controlled its economy and implemented progressive reforms for over three decades, yet, it hasn’t been able to join the league of high-income nations. It is impossible to see India walking a smooth path in the coming years. If the country’s economic performance has to improve, steps must be taken renew faith in institutional frameworks.

Industry is a vital component of the nation’s growth and ‘profit’ is really not a dirty term, if it has some redistributive bearing. Economic growth and redistribution of wealth can happen simultaneously, if the Government and trade and industry learn to work together.Finally, industry chambers too need to wake up and get their act together, if they wish to remain relevant. Or else, they will soon have no role to play at all.
-Atul K Thakur
Email:summertickets@gmail.com
(Published in The Pioneer on October28,2013)

More than a rockstar performance

The new RBI Governor has loosened capital controls to attract investments from abroad. But the weather is still rough and the economy weak. Raghuram Rajan has a lot to do, and his debonair looks will not see him through...

These days everyone, including celebrity author Shobhaa De, is writing about Mr Raghuram Rajan for the country’s leading pink papers, which surprisingly cover lifestyle alongside business news. In the Reserve Bank of India’s long history, such excitement over a new Governor is unprecedented. But much of this has been manufactured by the Union Ministry of Finance which also clouded the end of Mr Rajan’s predecessor’s term.

Mr D Subbarao was given a politically-motivated farewell for his conservative handling of the central bank. He will also be remembered for his principled tussle with the Finance Ministry for quite a long time. It is a cliché that the nitty-gritties of politics overrule broad-based approaches because, for now, politics has won, and the Finance Ministry and the RBI are enjoying a rare harmony.

I have known Mr Rajan since his early days in Government, was impressed by his celebrated 2005 lecture, The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, that was delivered at a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I also read with great interest his radically upfront book on capitalism, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy.

If his 2005 lecture placed him among visionaries who sensed in advance the impending trouble in the Anglophone financial model, his 2010 book added to his position as a rational thinker who had confronted the ills of the financial model, spoke against the rise of cronyism and the suspicious increase in the number of billionaires in post-reform India. Unfortunately, I fear we will miss that person now that he has taken his position at the helm of the RBI.

There is good reason why Mr Rajan’s nicely tailored suits are more talked about than his policies. Some of these, for instance, he has taken overnight to stop the downfall of the vulnerable rupee. Mr Rajan has also loosened capital controls to attract investments from abroad. But the weather is still rough and the fundamentals of the economy still weak. The pampered corporate sector is in no mood to fight its incompetencies.

In the last three decades, financial systems around the world have witnessed major change. The credit system has liberalised and the reaches of financial markets have expanded. But these changes have come with greater risks. The RBI, on many occasions, has had to step in to control visible and imminent challenges such as the earlier East Asian crisis to the worldwide recession of 2007-2008, from which we are yet to recover.

The RBI especially deserves praise for maintaining an effective regulatory grip over the new entities in the financial sector such as private equity and hedge funds. But on the other side, it remains a helpless hawk that cannot control the unethical business model of the capital market or rein in the impractical mutual fund sector which is destined for be untrustworthy. But with regard to the banking sector, the RBI has appeared to be in sync with the Finance Ministry. As a result, this sector has remained semi-reformed and non-progressive.

The last two decades have seen the emergence of diverse institutional networks in India and together they make a huge impact on policy-making. From inflation control to monetary policies, the RBI is controlling them all but individually. The clout of established third party financial assessors and lobbyists is also being strongly felt, now that India’s financial system too is seeking to become a clone of the Anglophone financial model. This is fine in the short run, but will lead to heavy losses in the medium to long term.

Mr Rajan has to take a position on this. But in the short span of time that he has been in office, he already seems to be losing his sheen. The Economist, which for some reason is religiously read in India, has compared the RBI with a pressure cooker and covertly offered sympathy for Mr Rajan. I don’t subscribe to such an extreme evaluation but have no doubt that leading the RBI during the last months of a beleaguered UPA2’s term is not a comfortable task.

At a time when the Government has made governance a redundant theme, reviving growth and containing price rise are among toughest tasks for the new RBI Governor. Also, since election is around the corner, agencies that have been sleeping all this while, such as the Planning Commission, will awake to action and offer concessions to cover up the incumbent regime’s fiscal imprudence. The RBI will come under pressure from the top and play safe, or not play at all.

Of course, India will eventually bounce back but the recovery will happen with a volatile financial sector that will remain densely populated by crony-capitalists and marred by their incompetent corporate spirit. The impressive ratings of the new RBI Governor must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Atul K Thakur
Email:summertickets@gmail.com
(Published in The Pioneer on 25September2013)

Tragedies of budgetary show

As finance minister of union cabinet, Pranab Mukherjee forgot to elaborate about the much awaited 12th five year plan during his budget speech in parliament, which is aimed to strive for “more financial inclusion”. Instead, he chosen a horrific quote from foregone Shakespearian drama “Helmet” that “being cruel to be kind” in quite dramatic fashion…moreover, his exuberant declamation of Indian cinema’s centenary year with service tax holiday for a year was among the height of deviant financial planning of the economy that was waiting for a slew of measures for retrieving its desired tune!

Unfortunately that remained complete amiss and further counterpoints overshadowed the all prominent expectations were attached to this budget. For year 2012-13, GDP has projected at 7.6%, fiscal deficit-5.1% and subsidy to 1.9%, which is completely irrational from the fiscal discipline point of view and constitutional mandate of this country as it would be toughest to expect that these figures would substantially lowered the government’s borrowing in next few years. This economics from planning commission and finance ministry is very questionable, as they never have even second thought in prioritizing the beleaguered IT industry by allowing UDI, headed by Nandan Nilekani to be black pearl with incessant flow of many billion dollars every year in their favour and leaving aside the masses adrift from the dividend of state.

So there should be no surprise, have if the new definition will term “subsidy” as the biggest threat to the imaginative blooming economy which produced a Vijay Mallaya for few years with all notoriety of insane wealth! Further showing the overview of economy, finance minister has set the target of Rs 30,000 crore for disinvestment of PSUs, which is quite amateurish and shocking-even after the worst performance of stake selling of these state run companies few months back, the morale should have been never so weak. Instead rushing for sordid professional expertise, as Monetk Singh Ahulwalia often relies over before taking sides on major policy matters from the ghost house of socialism-Planning commission; a simple thought would be rather more convincing-why this unexpected undermining of one’s own assets?

Here the basic notion “good sale is always good” should be in the state of mind seeing the impressive consumerist size of Indian economy which allows a $2billion house (own by Mukesh Ambani whose literal meaning is too ambitious to live alone in its surroundings) and 56% urban slums in the same city, which for only few months and only by few, once seen as the potential global finance hub. That never happened alas! For a more pragmatic shift, the crucial policy circles must draw a line-between progressivism and reform, I am sure even the performing corporate besides the common men would chose earlier as it would allow them to be close of a sustainable model rather maligning with very ambiguous web of “reform” which is itself needed a new dossier of reform very sooner than later.

Under the regime of confused state, this year, no big announcements have made. Infact, announcements have no culture to be backed by the timeline in India, so even the tall promises of allowing few more private banks as promised by the last budget is still in the ideation of hibernation state. Another major component of financial sector-Insurance has given tough time with increased services tax and no touch of much needed regulatory changes. Mutual funds industry had long back have heard off regulatory eulogy, so it’s no longer an exciting domain like its peers Private Equity or Venture Capital Funds which are breathing existential crisis more acute than a fish out of water!

Although a sycophant scheme, Rajiv Gandhi Equity Scheme with allowing income tax deduction of 50% to new retail investors, who will invest up to RS50,000 directly in equity and whose annual income is below Rs10lakh would boost the temptations for legalized gambling rather invoking the confidence of retail investors who have lost too much in the recent past. Even in overall ambit of financial businesses, it would be very tough in the days ahead to draw back the retailers to the business as they used to be till year 2010. Only the bond market has gained, if say in monosyllabic mode-Rs 60,000 crore worth of tax free infrastructure bond from financial institutions would carve some niche here, even though for a temporary period.

Regional Rural Banks, which are doing fabulously fine, were hardly needed any new financial infusion, rather their unification and making them on all counts at par with the PSBs were sincerely expected for bridging the gap of rural financing and making an unique financial institution of strength. So, unusual touches of exotic “reform” simply abstaining financial sector to get on cheering spree. The gain indeed shifted to infrastructure and slumbering bond market, where allocations under Rural Infrastructure Development Funds (RIDF), increased to Rs20,000 crore from preceding year’s Rs18, 000 crore.

Further for addressing the warehousing shortage in the country, an amount of Rs 5,000 crore earmarked from the above allocation exclusively for creating warehousing facilities under RIDF. Under 12th five year plan, $12 billion dollar would be spend on infrastructure and this will be done on Public Private Partnership basis, so more of commercially exciting time is awaiting ahead than the real infrastructural development. Taxation remained disappointing with increase in service tax and excise duty by 2% which will have very adverse effects on the price rise…slight cut of .25%in Security Transaction Tax(STT)is hardly suffice, so is true with the token increase of initial income tax slab by Rs20,000 to 2lakh.

Adding retrospective claws in checking the tax evasion is completely erroneous, as the timely practices of existing laws are quite suffice to handle the Vodafone like situation where the loss of $2billion dollars has suffered by the exchequer. Other bizarre targets are the fuel and fertilizer subsidies which have larger binding over the agrarian classes, could create a big survival crisis among the majority of peoples involved in primary sector. Rationalisation of diesel/LPG s would not be entirely wrong but it should be come only with giving ample room for targeted subsidies to weaker sections. Albeit in broader framework, it’s interesting to know, that the government is not loosing much by oil imports with excessive revenue that coming through the existing importing duties, here too chances are alive of big correction for letting breather to an average oil consumer.

Social sectors, which constitute the pivotal roles in equitable growth, have suffered immensely by the consistent flaws in policy orientation and bad execution of ongoing flagship programmes, which is cause of grave concern. The severe human development deficits confronting India in various sectors require a major stepping up of public provisioning for inclusive development; but that would require the government to adopt progressive policies in policy framework and execution. Ironically whose chances appears very feeble as par now. On different social sectors, India has only 7%allocation of its total GDP unlike the OECD countries average that is totally stark.

This year, total allocation on Rural Development has fallen to Rs 73, 175 crore from Rs 74,100 crore last year. Decline of total outlay on MGNREGS to Rs33,000 crore from Rs40,000 is utterly shocking though it also shows the changed polity of UPA-II which is no longer rural centric even symbolically. The marginal rise in allocations for Ajeevika (National Rural Livelihood Mission) to Rs3915 crore from 2681.3 crore, Indira Awas Yojna to Rs11075 crore from Rs10,000 crore and PMGSY to Rs18172crore from Rs17412.5crore can be only said the tip of iceberg against the real needs.

As proportion of total expenditure from the Union budget, share of agriculture has fallen from 11.21 to 9.3%. Though total outlay for the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation has been marked by an increase of 18%to Rs17,123 from Rs20,208 crore but again this tokenism is too little. Additional provisioning for Bringing Green Revolution to Eastern India (BGREI) to Rs1000 crore from Rs400crore is somehow satisfying but slashing on corp insurance to Rs1136crore from Rs3135crore shows the classic case of black comedy. Rest, target of credit flow to farmers to Rs5.75lakh crore from Rs4.75lakh crore will only encourage the targeted segments, if the compliance of Priority Sector Lendings would be made hard fast, but there is no such assurance supporting this change.

Its proven that per capita food consumption is declining in India, in this scenario declined provisioning to Rs 1,79,554 crore from Rs 2,08, 503crore is the cruelest act from a government claims to stand for marginalised classes. Public Distribution System (PDS) stood with Rs75,000crore allocation and many populist burdens like universal distribution of rice/wheat, the extra pressure of lowered petroleum subsidy to Rs43,580 crore from Rs 68,481crore will make life more difficult for rural inhabitants based on local incomes. A very much related theme, climate change found no sincere attention in entire budget document however, economic surveys have added a separate chapter on climate change but without any overt working guidelines.

The total magnitude of the gender budget has declined to 5.8% from 5.9% and allocations for the Ministry of Women and Child Development has increased to Rs18,500crore from Rs16,100crore, which is too short from anticipated enhancement. Budgetary allocation on children have grew up modestly to 4.8%from 4.6% last year-in total spending on child specific schemes have set out on Rs71,028.11crore. Allocations on ICDS and ICPS have marginally stepped up though both the amount and execution of schemes are in worrying conditions.

Health still accounts only2.31% of total GDP, many plans for new hospitals, urban health care on the line of NRHM will be in bad state grappling with no extra allocations. NRHM got 15% hike toRs20,822crore from Rs 18,115crore but overall financing public health couldn't merely be an act of tokenism, that has missed in consideration. Allocation on water and sanitation has moved up to Rs14,005.2crore from Rs11,005.2crore, rural drinking and sanitation have given priorities, which is only half good. Budgetary spending on education has increased to 4.97% from 4.65%-but allocation for SSA has gone up by just Rs21,000crore to Rs25,555 crore, which is discouraging, similar are the cases of primary, middle or even higher level of educational plans.

Allocation under Scheduled Caste sub plan has increased to Rs37,113.03crore from Rs31,434.46 crore and for Schedule Tribal sub plan, allocation has increased to Rs 21710.11 crore from Rs18,466.23crore-though most of the genuine demands related to their welfare were rejected. Though “minorities” found no mention in budget but a slight hike in allocation came to Rs3135crore from Rs 2750 crore...disabled people got no or very feeble specified assistance through this budget.

MSME Sector-
In this budget, it's well to see basic custom duty coming down to 2.5%from earlier exorbitant6% on specified parts and machinery components. To setting up a Rs5,000crore India Opportunities Venture Fund with SIDBI is a right step but the real question of financial access is related with the cooperation of banks at bottom level, where is need of greater changes. Mention of two newly created MSMEs exchanges and MSMEs being called as "building blocks" of our economy by the finance minister in his budget speech was symbolically appreciable for this hitherto marginalised segment of industry.

Though it would have better, if the procurement policy for micro&small enterprises would have broaden to private sector along with the proposed change for CPSE to make a minimum of 20%of their annual purchases from MSEs.-of this, four business deals will be earmarked for procurement from MSE owned by SC/ST enterprises.
At the moment of political and financial adverseness, there was much expectation attached with this budget, which is completely shattered now as neither market nor the mass sentiments seems uplifted even in tint after the all statistical deliverance. So, it would be right, if we will still believe more in our edge of “economies of scale” rather on statistical commentary of budget. After twenty years of liberalisation, India is lagging behind in spirit rather in fundamentals…that’s the cause of maximum worries!

(Courtesy-Centre for Budget and Governance Accountability (CBGA) - a New Delhi based research organisation for some of the data’s used in this piece)

Atul Kumar Thakur
March 23, 2012, Friday, New Delhi
Email: summertickets@gmail.com

Commoners Stake in Accesses

Standpoint wishes all its readers a very happy and prosperous new year2010...hope we will keep sharing the debates in similar spirits...Standpoint also offering its heartful condolence for Asheem Chakravarty,the legendary singer and percussionist(Indian Ocean)whose prematured demise was a painful jolt for all music lovers across the globe...

As we are heading for a dawn of New Year with leaving this present epoch making year in which we partially upfront with the havocking recession and later witnessed its recovery to a scale; amidst these loose and gain situation, its marginal impact on commoners or Aam admi could be sensed very high despite their substantial proportions in low end services.
Frequent retrenchments and layoffs in the name of cost cutting measures and inflation, surging like banyan trees are relentlessly jeopardizing the relative potential gain of these sections that hitherto have been never caught in such web of relative deprivation before the reform era when earlier income gap was not happened so huge.

In the early eighteenth century, India accounted for nearly a quarter of world output, but by the time India got independence, that share had declined to about 3%; the common men’s were in the centre as the deterioration of basic indexes have been largely constituted through there growing destitutions.
Major causes of this growing divides are numerous approaching frills which desperate common men to experiment adequately to raise their fortunes-indeed by data, incomes are growing up in rural areas, only the failure to innovate policies are hampering the immense scope for empowerment that sustained growth offers the common men in India.

Besides other outcomes, reforms opened up new possibilities of emancipation for the masses which can thrive and strive for inclusive growth with empowering connotations that’s strikingly sound better than earlier popular moves like Garibi hatao (Poverty Eradication) in 1970’s.
Although these all needs a consistent backing of positive political will and constructive mindsets all around; since the adoption of liberalization programme in 1991, India as nation have been countering with numerous oddities- cries of separatism in its north-east and the north-west region, religious antagonism, militancy, scams, natural calamities, instable neighborhoods and of course current global financial crisis in which despite its bid to escape have considerably caught in losses.

Before this ongoing financial crisis, the Asian crisis of 1997 and over investment in the mid-90’s brought an end to resurgent growth in the Asian continent, growth again picked up only in 2003-04; thereafter, till the present financial crisis that reached to noticeable scale in September 2008 and started receiving much notice after the bankruptcy of iconic Lehman Brothers and near about six dozen other financial institutions in western economies.
Despite such adversities on global financial integration and availing one-fourth of it territory affected by violence and insurgency, Indian economy sustained a robust growth of 7% and is expected to touch the level of pre-recession by the next fiscal year which is indeed admirable. So, we still have positive indications by surpassing the enormous challenges, the only big thing we are missing now the universalization of access to the fruits of growth….innovations at various levels could only take off when the required resources would be easily available among the executioners.
Optimization of financial delivery through no-frills services by the financial institutions could rationalize most of the innovative practices; UPA government’s moves like Unique Identification Project (UID) and payment of wages of many centre sponsored developmental flagship programmes such as NREGS, through banks could caused for a lot of positive changes which are most sought after for the being.

Usually I don’t believe in practices of blind consumerism albeit some inherent positive competition could be inferred for the while to produce it as show piece-telecommunication in India is most formidable example before the financial sector in India; the way telecom companies have been targeting the low end users through shift competition and consistently reducing of theirs margins of profit is a best example of participatory growth.
It’s worthwhile to note that even after that most of company’s including government owned, BSNL&MTNL are making handsome profits; some positive initiatives are needed from our banks to uplift the morale of common folks whose improved positions would be very imperative to see the Indian growth stories in real light.

Education and financial stability has powers to do miracle in rural hinterlands of India; the famous quotation of great communist economic thinker Karl Marx seems very conducive here “It’s material being ness that decides the awareness of humankind and not the vice-versa”….through practical understanding to deep analysis of complex developmental economics, all formed same crux that the access or entitlement that decides the fate of related folks.
After sixty-two years of independence and considerable shaping of our economy, now the time is ripe to incline the priorities towards ensuring the basic facilities for all along abandoning populist and divisive ingredients from the honest developmental agenda.
Atul Kumar Thakur
December 30th 2009, New Delhi
atul_mdb@rediffmail.com