The break Nitish Kumar will rue

As long as the Janata Dal (United) remained aligned with the Bharatiya Janata Party, Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan could be kept at arm’s length. By snapping ties with the BJP, the JD(U) will feel the heat

Bihar is passing through an unprecedented transition. This time it is imposed by the political compulsions rather by malfunctioning of the state machinery, which hitherto plagued the State on many occasions. The JD(U) and the BJP had changed the political discourse at the height of the RJD’s misrule together.

The end of the JD(U)-BJP coalition in Bihar has returned the subversive rhetoric to the forefront, which makes the present political scene in the State look like what it was in the 1990s. Back then, the Left and the Congress were in bonhomie with the RJD to fight the imagined threat to communal harmony. Although toothless, they will now do something similar in the Lok Sabha election to escape slipping through the cracks of untravelled political routes.

The Lok Janshakti Party’s Ram Vilas Paswan is too consistent in his own way. He has been a face of central politics, and his coalition choice will be decided according to which major alliance will have a better shot at Delhi’s throne.
Lalu Prasad’s son is another politician who was born into this role out of miserable cricket career and his father’s lack of trust in the senior leaders of his motley camp.

So, Mr Tejashwi Yadav is a poster boy and together with RJD’s old horse, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, they are struggling hard to make their presence felt on the rough political turf of Patna.

This is the state of affairs inside the opposition parties in Bihar. Their claim of giving the State a better governance model than the present regime is based on flawed raw material and reckless manoeuvrings. However, the three-dimensional polarisation in the State will give leeway to a certain extent to these parties. But assuming that edge too significant would be an over-estimation.

It is axiomatic that in isolation, both the JD(U) and the BJP will see the upcoming election unprecedentedly tough.
The division of votes and the lack of a natural ally for any potential coalition will haunt both the camps equally. Danger is looming large for another round of devastating political plays by the desperate RJD and the LJP. They will not prefer missing any chance to get back the State.

Development as a political agenda was not commonplace in Bihar before the NDA rose to command in Bihar in 2005. The feudal construct in the State significantly diminished in subsequent years. Besides, social and political changes fast-paced and Bihar performed remarkably well in economic sphere too. But in the changed circumstances now, it is uncertain that the erstwhile component of the NDA will be able to reap any benefits out of that success.

Another crucial factor is the rising expectation of the masses from the Government. This is a positive phenomenon and even if the State Government is being criticised for not curing all ills of public services, it should be seen differently. Recently, Bihar has overcome its chronic power crisis too, next in line with other visible developments.

But the improved infrastructure is not happening in crucial areas like education and industry, and on this count the people are genuinely angry with the incumbent Government. A lacklustre attitude towards industry is another sightable drawback that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Government has been afflicted with.

A casual attitude in the recruitment of teachers, doctors and other professionals is another disastrous move of the regime. When such moves were resisted, they were met with an arrogant response from the Chief Minister. Despite having a stable fiscal position, it is bizarre that Mr Nitish Kumar has no interest in avoiding such treatment to the educated unemployed.

The state of higher education is no less pathetic. Most students are still compelled to migrate for university education. The only improvement is the secured finances to many sick universities. It is not that moves were not made to improve the situation. But, wrongly envisioned, they met with failure. Surrounded with the wrong set of advisers, Mr Nitish Kumar seems to forget the pain of his people
Notably, these advisers come from different orbits and they hardly know the State outside of Patna. Those living in the State are acknowledging the welcome changes of recent years, albeit shunning the insensitive stand of the Government on key issues. As they vote during the election, their anger could impact adversely on the immediate prospects of the JD(U).

It’s time Mr Kumar looks beyond his statistical progression with developmental plans. He must recognise the excluded areas where his Government has failed to go far. Officialdom has its limits and Mr Kumar must not forget that. In the next few weeks, the scenario of alliances would become clear. Bihar will usher into a difficult phase. This time, it would be losing its ‘reformed politics’.
-Atul K Thakur
Email: summertickets@gmail.com
(Published in The Pioneer, on January7,2014)

Bihar's Industrial Renaissance

Once synonymous with the "land of opportunities", the outbreak of political corruption in the early 1990's saw Bihar fall from grace. Long periods of misrule based on casteist politics in the guise of social justice thwarted progress and development in the state. Post liberalisation, while other states were riding the high tide of growth, Bihar was wading through (political) inaction which defied growth aspirations that tolled and shambled its impressions outside. Between 1990 and 2004, Bihar suffered hardships more acutely than those revealed by any official statistics.

Due to strong political governance, Bihar had been one of the performing Indian states prior to 1990; it lost that edge in the next fifteen years. The process of recuperation began with the arrival of a thinking leader, Nitish Kumar, in 2005. He took charge of a state in ruins and made it thoroughly functional and even competent by boosting basic services such as infrastructure, law and order. This has had a radical impact and helped metamorphose the state's work culture positively.

Post independence, India's planned economy was single-mindedly shaped on an industrial policy targeted towards developing heavy industries near raw material supply centres along with creating an effective infrastructure network for mobilising the resources among different aimed destinations. An undivided Bihar, with its rich mineral base and close proximity to Kolkata for transport access, became an exciting hunting ground for large scale investments. The operations of Tata Iron and Steel Company (Tisco) in Jamshedpur and public sector units like SAIL in Bokaro testify to the positive prospects Bihar was offering. Despite the flaws of policies regarding traditional communities, new industrial cities such as Ranchi, Bokaro, Jamshedpur, Dhanbad and others came up under the changed policy atmosphere.

The pattern of industrial policy manoeuvrings in the initial five years plans significantly influenced the shaping of growth prospects in Bihar for the long run. Their impact was felt in three different ways. Firstly, the resource rich southern parts of Bihar, especially the regions of Chhota Nagpur emerged as the hub of industries. Secondly, over emphasis on heavy industries in South Bihar undermined any chances of developing agro-based industries in the naturally conducive Gangetic plane of northern region of the state. Consequently, the industries of southern Bihar failed to establish any significant interface with the minor industries located in North Bihar. In the absence of such strong linkages between south and North Bihar, the bifurcation of the state in the year 2000 (the creation of Jharkhand) came as a severe blow to the newly formed Bihar.

Moreover, the bifurcation resulted in some structural changes in the overall industrial pattern of Bihar. All big mineral based industrial houses were located in the new state of Jharkhand and very few large scale industries are left in post bifurcated Bihar. Thus,there have been no mineral based industries in the state and the industrial enterprises were bound to be restricted in lightweight segments such as agro-based, food processing, textiles, leather, wood and paper industries.

Despite this, macroeconomic overview on the economy of Bihar marked a significant increase in Gross State Domestic Product(GSDP) since the beginning of the last decade and during the second half of the decade. As per the Central Statistical Organization (CSO), the average annual growth of GSDP in Bihar has been robust at 8.5 per cent during the period 1999-00 to 2009-10 and more importantly in the second half of the decade. During the period from 2005-06 to 2009-10, the state income of Bihar grew at an impressive average annual growth of 10.9 per cent.

As a result, the economy of Bihar has undergone major structural changes during the last decade with the changes in composition of its GSDP between 2000-01 and 2009-10. The share of agriculture has declined from 38.8 per cent in 2000-01 to 20.8 per cent in 2009-10. On the other hand, the share of secondary sector increased from 10.7 per cent to 19.9 per cent and share of the service sector increased from 50.5 per cent to 59.4 per cent during the same time period. But the Per Capita Income (PCI), measured by the per capita net state domestic product at current prices, of Bihar remained abysmally low at Rs 13,663 compared to all India average of Rs 37,490 in 2008-09.

The fiscal front of the Bihar shows that the gross fiscal deficit ratio to GSDP is at 2.7 per cent in 2010-11 which is within the desirable Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) target level. The revenue receipt/GSDP ratio is also at a comfortable level in Bihar at 28.1 per cent for 2010-11 and the state enjoys a revenue surplus as per the budget estimate of 2010-11. Bihar is among the top states when it comes to central transfer (CT). The 2010-11 budget shows a CT- GSDO ratio at 21 per cent. Even Bihar's expenditure pattern is very impressive as the state spends mostly under the heads of developmental expenditure, social service expenditure and capital outlay. Therefore, Bihar gives strongest fundamentals, which are considered essential for sizable investments; undoubtedly it has an undeniable edge on this in eastern side.

Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) have been playing major role in the economy of Bihar. 2000 onwards this trend has grown stronger. As on 2010-11, the state has about 183729 registered MSME units with a total investment of Rs 1,275 crores, which creates employment to about 6 lakh people. According to the fourth all India survey of micro, small and medium enterprises conducted in 2006-07 by Ministry of MSME, a total number of 71,435 enterprises were surveyed in Bihar. Out of these surveyed enterprises, 52,188 MSME units are operational. These operational units constitute more than 73 per cent of total number of enterprises surveyed in Bihar during 2006-07. The future growth of industry in Bihar will be continuing heavily propelled by MSMEs.

A FICCI- KAF (Konrad Adeneur Foundation) report has made wide-ranging recommendations for improving industrial growth in the state. The suggestions, based on industry's feedback on land allocation, power, labour, taxation, transport infrastructure, marketing, credit availability, technology upgradation and agri-led industrial development, were based on macroeconomic assessments.CII too has made recommendations for Bihar's industrial growth; interestingly a wide ranging policy convergence could be seen with the pragmatism of state government.

More than the availability of resources, Bihar's industrial saturation or deterioration was caused by the inaction of policy makers. With the upgradation of machinery and absence of subversive politics in Bihar the focus on growth is evident from the signing of more than 176 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for major business deals. Nevertheless, rate of execution is still short of a satisfactory primarily because of the Centre's apathy to provide coal linkage for the critical needs of thermal power in the state. Despite north Bihar being a rich resource of water, hydroelectricity capacity of the state remains abysmal.

There is huge potential in the flood affected districts of Madhubani, Saharsa, Supaul, Sitamarhi,Purnea, Araria, Kishanganj, Katihar to be used as the cluster of hydroelectric generation through effective water management for commercial uses. This can help make Darbhanga a major industrial city in the north Bihar; with historical preeminence and excellent geographical location, this place deserves to retrieve its lost glory. A new vision with comprehensive action plans is needed to include Bihar's northern regions (Mithilanchal) in the proper growth framework. This will not only help in boosting entrepreneurship in these regions alone but across the state. Also a renewed negotiation with Nepal is need of this hour; Patna must be allowed to play bigger role in the future bilateral dialogues of India and Nepal.

Today Bihar presents the ideal high ground for attracting investments and business activities from both within and outside. Among the eastern states, Bihar has a clear lead for placing its claim for a new potential based on its immaculate governance and a regime of clean politics. Hitherto, it was never so persistently resonant and especially after one and a half decades of intense gloom, the new found optimism in Bihar is a 'pleasant end to a tragedy'. Under the sea of changes, the concentration of debate has shifted from 'parochialism to progressivism'. This gives big hope to industry becasue unlike Gujrat, in Bihar, both the politics and enterprise are rational and sustainable, so there is no longer any reason of industry's inhibitions to operationalise its activities in the state. The culture of coalition politics mars the unbiased functioning of the state, this is quite clear with the Centre's consistent apathy to assist the Bihar through special aides in last seven years. However, Bihar's growth agenda will not be compressed too much and the present sense of optimism should be maintained.
Atul Kumar Thakur
August31st2012,Friday
Email: summertickets@gmail.com
(Published in Businessworld on August 13th2012/ http://businessworld.in:8080/en/storypage/-/bw/bihar%E2%80%99s-industrial-renaissance/473137.30752/page/0 )

Edge of being Bihar!

Defying all the tantrums of reactionary opposition, Nitish Kumar led NDA’s upscaled victory trounced even all the preordained forecast about the Bihar’s poll. Nitish, gifted yet a meticulous leader in mainline politics is among few statesmen today who elude spontaneous outpouring and never let allow any manipulation in the figure of speech. This is marked shift in the leadership inside Bihar, where sardonic demonstration of Lalu Yadav-Rabri Devi and theirs Cabinet have been crisped as an indictment for state and in general for the fate of its oppressed peoples.
What Nitish and his government have done most remarkable in last five years was, complete clampdown on political criminals-both inside the party and outside of it. Deglamourization of crime vehementally inculcate on collective scale to move on for future and retrieve some old glory on which the pride of Bihar can blossom.

Outset to end of first term of Nitish as Chief Minister proved not only milestone in Bihar but overall n state politics-nobody can refute his charisma and his justifying commitment for inclusive growth which probably enabled Ramchandra Guha to rate Nitish as most thoughtful leader of India. Nitish, just after a land sliding win with 206 seats {JD{U}-115,BJP-91}in Assembly election recalled an added caution of Guha that like Ram Krishna Hegde in Karnataka, he shouldn’t chase the tedious routes of politics at centre.
In same encouraging but rapt press conference, he attributed the mandate for aspirations of mass Bihari-besides, it was indeed heartening to see the way he raised his task for more empowered and prosperous Bihar and ruling out any ambition for highest executive rank with mentioning the suggestions made by Ramchandra Guha. No inanity for victory was a clear departure from RJD-LJP style wild saas!

The champion of trivia against the real issues, Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan were put on toes, with abysmal legislative presence and end of theirs rational in politics, now have entitled them not more than figurehead in theirs respective parties. Now, Mr. Yadav’s positions is very downsized in Bihar, overt rebellion of close ranks and especially of infamous relatives leaves ominous sign for any further revival of his fortune. His detrimental attitude of rule, had completely demolished the organic aspirations of development from 1990to 2005-quest for new Bihar started with a pursuit of scrubbing the maligned impressions under the honest efforts of Nitish Kumar.
Almost extinction of left parties could be co-related to theirs internal strife and lack of proper working plan in Bihar. Fallen grace of Congress is the outcome of its active stakeholding during the wild eras {1990-2005} and its corrupt legacies nourished under the appointed observers from Delhi. Certainly, the party could do much better without the crony mentoring of party observer, Mukul Wasnik, who spent most of time in distorting the local leadership with flawed favourism in ticket distribution…sycophancy is chant of gone era, atleast now that must embarrass its central leaders and family in command.

On the day of verdict, I received first few lines from Ramchandra Guha “Thanks for this good news, your state under the abled leadership of Nitish Babu deserves it…”- his excitement and constructive support of media/intellectuals have given Nitish Kumar an ample thumbs up for victory. As he is already on track for new maneuverings to give Bihar all supplements that was lost during the dark years-here, a delicate policy on investment would be required to tap the fine infrastructure in state. Coal linkage is certainly a major impediment in Bihar’s way but this time government is better equipped with resilient mandate from all side to negotiate the contentious matters with centre more profoundly.
Bihar could be a hub of services and agro-processed processed industries with abundant raw materials and very competent human resources. Working in this emerged Bihar would be an edge for early participant from industry; impetus which the state promises of good governance and inclusive development-most scarce qualities in present time. With unlimited potential from all side, Bihar is ready to receive the advances of positive engagement with growth agents…in next five years; Nitish Kumar government has golden time to shape the balance future for state and at next for the nation. As always, wind of change in Indian politics shall come from Bihar-after many years, expected is all positive for a new lease of life to political profession. Time is exactly conducive to play big shot by Nitish Kumar…what Bihar needs now…
Atul Kumar Thakur
December29, 2010, Wednesday, New Delhi
Mail: atul_mdb@rediffmail.com